{
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  "input_cutoff": "2026-10-20T16:06:04.591951Z",
  "expires_at": "2026-10-21T16:06:04.591951Z",
  "offline_fixture": false,
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      "fuel": "eurosuper95",
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        "effective_from": "2026-10-20",
        "effective_to": "2026-10-27",
        "source_id": "gov-2026-10-20"
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        "price": "1.83",
        "effective_from": "2026-10-20",
        "effective_to": "2026-10-27",
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      "next_target": "2026-10-27",
      "estimate": "1.87",
      "interval": null,
      "probabilities": null,
      "delta_cents": "4.00",
      "recommendation": "no_urgency",
      "mode": "educated_guess",
      "reasons": [
        "Nema provjerenih tržišnih ulaza za sljedeći obračun.",
        "Istorijski test je retrospektivna rekonstrukcija, ne arhivirana prognoza.",
        "Vijesti imaju nulti numerički doprinos dok se ne dokaže korist."
      ],
      "key_uncertainty": "Tržišni ulazi, nejasnoća bankarske provizije i buduće akcize moraju biti potvrđeni. Licencirane kotacije nijesu javni tok podataka.",
      "source_ids": [
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      "rule_version": "40-2026-read-bank-rate-unresolved",
      "outlook": {
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        "basis": "newer_news_risk",
        "evidence_strength": "limited",
        "estimate": "1.87",
        "magnitude_sample_n": 10,
        "magnitude_method": "median of past same-direction, same-regime cap changes",
        "conflicting_signals": true,
        "reasons": [
          {
            "kind": "news",
            "title_en": "Newer energy-supply reports",
            "title_me": "Noviji izvještaji o snabdijevanju",
            "detail_en": "Two or more publishers report the same supply mechanism after the market-data cutoff. We use this as an unvalidated directional judgment, not an additional price increment.",
            "detail_me": "Najmanje dva izdavača izvještavaju o istom mehanizmu nakon datuma tržišnih podataka. To je nevalidirana procjena smjera, ne dodatak cijeni po naslovu.",
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          {
            "kind": "market",
            "title_en": "Refined-product proxy",
            "title_me": "Tržišni pokazatelj derivata",
            "detail_en": "New York Harbor gasoline: -2.48% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. US location and delayed data; not Montenegro’s licensed benchmark.",
            "detail_me": "New York Harbor gasoline: -2.48% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. Američko tržište i podaci sa zakašnjenjem; nije crnogorska referentna kotacija.",
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          {
            "kind": "policy",
            "title_en": "Taxes can change the outcome",
            "title_me": "Porezi mogu promijeniti ishod",
            "detail_en": "The current cap is official. The next excise decision is not assumed: a tax change can outweigh the product-price signal.",
            "detail_me": "Važeći maksimum je zvaničan. Narednu odluku o akcizama ne pretpostavljamo: poreska promjena može nadjačati tržišni signal.",
            "source_ids": [
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        "caveat_en": "Educated guess, not a calibrated forecast. Policy changes, regional price differences and events already priced into markets can reverse this call.",
        "caveat_me": "Obrazložena pretpostavka, ne kalibrisana prognoza. Poreske odluke, regionalne razlike i događaji već uračunati u tržište mogu promijeniti ishod.",
        "model_version": "judgment-v2"
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      "probabilities": null,
      "delta_cents": "3.00",
      "recommendation": "no_urgency",
      "mode": "educated_guess",
      "reasons": [
        "Nema provjerenih tržišnih ulaza za sljedeći obračun.",
        "Istorijski test je retrospektivna rekonstrukcija, ne arhivirana prognoza.",
        "Vijesti imaju nulti numerički doprinos dok se ne dokaže korist."
      ],
      "key_uncertainty": "Tržišni ulazi, nejasnoća bankarske provizije i buduće akcize moraju biti potvrđeni. Licencirane kotacije nijesu javni tok podataka.",
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        "magnitude_method": "median of past same-direction, same-regime cap changes",
        "conflicting_signals": false,
        "reasons": [
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            "title_en": "Newer energy-supply reports",
            "title_me": "Noviji izvještaji o snabdijevanju",
            "detail_en": "Two or more publishers report the same supply mechanism after the market-data cutoff. We use this as an unvalidated directional judgment, not an additional price increment.",
            "detail_me": "Najmanje dva izdavača izvještavaju o istom mehanizmu nakon datuma tržišnih podataka. To je nevalidirana procjena smjera, ne dodatak cijeni po naslovu.",
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          {
            "kind": "market",
            "title_en": "Refined-product proxy",
            "title_me": "Tržišni pokazatelj derivata",
            "detail_en": "New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel: +1.22% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. US location and delayed data; not Montenegro’s licensed benchmark.",
            "detail_me": "New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel: +1.22% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. Američko tržište i podaci sa zakašnjenjem; nije crnogorska referentna kotacija.",
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          {
            "kind": "policy",
            "title_en": "Taxes can change the outcome",
            "title_me": "Porezi mogu promijeniti ishod",
            "detail_en": "The current cap is official. The next excise decision is not assumed: a tax change can outweigh the product-price signal.",
            "detail_me": "Važeći maksimum je zvaničan. Narednu odluku o akcizama ne pretpostavljamo: poreska promjena može nadjačati tržišni signal.",
            "source_ids": [
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        ],
        "caveat_en": "Educated guess, not a calibrated forecast. Policy changes, regional price differences and events already priced into markets can reverse this call.",
        "caveat_me": "Obrazložena pretpostavka, ne kalibrisana prognoza. Poreske odluke, regionalne razlike i događaji već uračunati u tržište mogu promijeniti ishod.",
        "model_version": "judgment-v2"
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        "effective_to": "2026-10-27",
        "source_id": "gov-2026-10-20"
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        "effective_from": "2026-10-20",
        "effective_to": "2026-10-27",
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      "next_target": "2026-10-27",
      "estimate": "1.89",
      "interval": null,
      "probabilities": null,
      "delta_cents": "3.00",
      "recommendation": "no_urgency",
      "mode": "educated_guess",
      "reasons": [
        "Nema provjerenih tržišnih ulaza za sljedeći obračun.",
        "Istorijski test je retrospektivna rekonstrukcija, ne arhivirana prognoza.",
        "Vijesti imaju nulti numerički doprinos dok se ne dokaže korist."
      ],
      "key_uncertainty": "Tržišni ulazi, nejasnoća bankarske provizije i buduće akcize moraju biti potvrđeni. Licencirane kotacije nijesu javni tok podataka.",
      "source_ids": [
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      "model_version": "judgment-v2",
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      "outlook": {
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        "evidence_strength": "limited",
        "estimate": "1.89",
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        "magnitude_method": "median of past same-direction, same-regime cap changes",
        "conflicting_signals": true,
        "reasons": [
          {
            "kind": "news",
            "title_en": "Newer energy-supply reports",
            "title_me": "Noviji izvještaji o snabdijevanju",
            "detail_en": "Two or more publishers report the same supply mechanism after the market-data cutoff. We use this as an unvalidated directional judgment, not an additional price increment.",
            "detail_me": "Najmanje dva izdavača izvještavaju o istom mehanizmu nakon datuma tržišnih podataka. To je nevalidirana procjena smjera, ne dodatak cijeni po naslovu.",
            "source_ids": [
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              "a90e31acaf80d1caf1ee9cc35324c86da110c52863b1369e1b8a62593331d0fd"
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          },
          {
            "kind": "market",
            "title_en": "Refined-product proxy",
            "title_me": "Tržišni pokazatelj derivata",
            "detail_en": "New York Harbor gasoline: -2.48% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. US location and delayed data; not Montenegro’s licensed benchmark.",
            "detail_me": "New York Harbor gasoline: -2.48% in EUR over 2026-10-07–2026-10-14. Američko tržište i podaci sa zakašnjenjem; nije crnogorska referentna kotacija.",
            "source_ids": [
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              "4baad8c2aeef9f50ccbd4a9561331a7554b9e23d2ab3d50385d7dde981f6453b"
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "policy",
            "title_en": "Taxes can change the outcome",
            "title_me": "Porezi mogu promijeniti ishod",
            "detail_en": "The current cap is official. The next excise decision is not assumed: a tax change can outweigh the product-price signal.",
            "detail_me": "Važeći maksimum je zvaničan. Narednu odluku o akcizama ne pretpostavljamo: poreska promjena može nadjačati tržišni signal.",
            "source_ids": [
              "gov-2026-10-20"
            ]
          }
        ],
        "source_ids": [
          "4baad8c2aeef9f50ccbd4a9561331a7554b9e23d2ab3d50385d7dde981f6453b",
          "27ac3f9d8e8dc9b41e7ae2b850857a6244e1cb25a95ba503a266a0fe6a295ce7",
          "cb4558cb3ef1d42e09d60301b71a670f651aefe18e0e9a0b47c4d1e77d264bec",
          "a90e31acaf80d1caf1ee9cc35324c86da110c52863b1369e1b8a62593331d0fd",
          "gov-2026-10-20"
        ],
        "caveat_en": "Educated guess, not a calibrated forecast. Policy changes, regional price differences and events already priced into markets can reverse this call.",
        "caveat_me": "Obrazložena pretpostavka, ne kalibrisana prognoza. Poreske odluke, regionalne razlike i događaji već uračunati u tržište mogu promijeniti ishod.",
        "model_version": "judgment-v2"
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    "commodity_fx_baseline": "Lagged official workbook import cost (product + FX), VAT multiplier 1.21; experimental baseline, not a current legal formula. Skip where inputs unavailable.",
    "event_model": "Historical numeric event model not tested. Judgment v2 uses current reports for uncalibrated direction only; no additive news cents or claimed accuracy uplift.",
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